February 2, 2017
Contributor: Kasey Panetta
声明：原文『Top 10 Mistakes in Enterprise Blockchain Projects』来自 http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-10-mistakes-in-enterprise-blockchain-projects/ ，翻译仅作为学习和参考用途。请勿商用。如有建议请联系 caoyang-ghq@sinosig.com.
要点
- 前言
- 十大错误
- 补充学习
一，前言
Organizations have begun experimenting with blockchain technology for a range of use cases including monetary remittances, academic credentialing systems, land title systems, and tracking the origin and provenance of products. Yet, Gartner estimates 90% of enterprise blockchain projects launched in 2015 will fail within 18 to 24 months.
很多机构已经开始在不同领域应用区块链技术进行试验性尝试，包括货币汇款、学历证明系统、土地所有权系统、以及产品、产地和去向溯源等。然而 ，Gartner预计2015年启动的企业级区块链项目中有90%将会在18到24个月内失败。
Part of the problem is that the majority of enterprise blockchain projects don’t actually require blockchain technology. In fact, these projects would probably be more successful if they did not utilize blockchain.
部分原因是大多数企业级区块链项目实际上并不需要区块链技术。事实上，这些项目不使用区块链可能会更成功。
Blockchain technology is **at the Peak of Inflated Expectations ** on the **Gartner Hype Cycle **, which means that the Trough of Disillusionment is still to be navigated. CIOs should be aware of the common mistakes that can lead to disappointment and failure in enterprise blockchain projects.
根据 Gartner 对泡沫周期的预测（技术炒作曲线），区块链技术目前处于盛名过誉的最高点，这意味着泡沫幻灭的低谷就在不远处。CIO 应该警惕企业级区块链项目中可能导致失望和失败的一些常见错误。
“The current generation of technology platforms have significant limitations in multiple areas that will result in their failure to meet the requirements outlined in the long-term vision,” said Ray Valdes, vice president and Gartner Fellow. “Many enterprises are still jumping on board the blockchain bandwagon and for most, disappointment will be the next phase.”
Gartner 副主席以及资深会员 Ray Valdes说到。
“当前一代技术平台在多个领域存在重大局限，无法满足项目长期发展愿景的诉求。很多企业仍在随大流开展区块链，但是接下来他们中的大多数都会失望。”
However, simply knowing where the frequent points of failure exist can help enterprises avoid falling into the same traps.
然而，只是认识到常见错误就能使企业避免陷入同样困境。
二，十大错误
1. Misunderstanding or ignoring the purpose of blockchain technology
For a project to utilize blockchain technology effectively,** it must add trust to an untrusted environment and exploit a distributed ledger mechanism.** Private blockchain deployments relax the security conditions in favor of a
centralized identity management system and consensus mechanism that obviates the trustless assumptions. To correct this, enterprises must
create a trust model of the entire system to identify trusted areas versus not-trusted areas and apply blockchain only to the untrusted parties.、
1. 误解或忽视使用区块链技术的目的
一个有效利用区块链技术的项目，必然需要在不信任的环境中增加信任，并充分发挥分布式账本机制。私有区块链的部署，放宽了中心化身份管理系统的安全条件，并取消了共识机制的无信任假设。为了纠正这个问题，企业必须为整个系统创建信任模型，用于分辨受信任区域与不受信任区域，并将区块链应用于不受信任区域的各方。
2. Assuming that current technology is ready for production use.
Despite a market of over 50 different blockchain platform technologies, only the bitcoin stack and the Ethereum platform are proven “at-scale.” However, third-party system integrators and multiple startups are marketing the technology as if it were mature. CIOs should assume most blockchain platforms will be immature for 24 months, and continue with experimentation and proofs of concept, especially in the context of open source.
2. 误以为现有技术已为大规模使用做好准备
尽管市面上有超过 50 种不同的区块链平台技术，被证明已初具规模的只有比特币和以太坊平台。然而第三方系统集成商和众多初创企业将这项技术作为成熟技术来进行市场推广。CIO 应该假设未来 24 个月内大多数区块链平台都不会达到成熟程度，并应继续在开源环境下进行实验和概念证明。
3. Confusing future blockchain technology with the present-day generation
Current blockchain platform technology is limited in scope, and falls short of meeting the requirements of a global-scale distribution platform that can enable the programmable economy. While that is the long-term plan for the technology, CIOs should ensure their blockchain use case timeline correlates with the evolving capabilities of blockchain functionality, as well as legal, accounting and regulatory maturity.
3. 将未来区块链技术与当前一代技术混淆
现有区块链平台技术有限，目前无法实现使可编程经济运转的全球化分布式平台。如果考虑到这项技术的长久发展，CIO 必须要确保他们的区块链应用项目和该技术功能进化相一致，同时也要顾及法律、会计和监管的成熟度。
4. Confusing a limited, foundation-level protocol with a complete business solution
While the term blockchain is often used in conjunction with innovative solutions in industries such as supply chain management or medical information systems, what’s currently available on the market doesn’t always match what is hyped in news stories. Given how blockchain is talked about, IT leaders might think the currently available foundational-level technology is essentially a complete application solution. But realistically, blockchain has a lot of evolving to do until it’s ready to fulfill all the potential technologies. When considering a broad-scope, ambitious blockchain project, CIOs should view the blockchain portion to be less than 5% of the total project development effort.
4. 将受限的基础协议和完善的商业解决方案混淆
虽然区块链这个专业术语经常出现在供应链管理、医疗信息系统等行业的创新解决方案中，我们仍需意识到新闻报道中的宣传与市场上实际可行的技术是有差异的。鉴于区块链经常在新闻报道中被夸大， IT 负责人可能错误地认为当前还非常基础的技术已经是完善的应用解决方案。实际情况是，区块链离取代现有技术还有很长的路要走。如果考虑进行覆盖范围广、雄心壮志的区块链项目，CIO 应该将整个项目研发中的区块链所占比重下调至 5%以下。
5. Viewing blockchain technology purely as a database or storage mechanism
Some IT leaders conflate “distributed ledger” with a data persistence mechanism or distributed database management system. Currently, blockchain implements a sequential, append-only record of significant events. It offers limited data management capabilities in exchange for a decentralized service and to avoid trusting a single central organization. CIOs must be aware of and weigh the data management tradeoffs to ensure blockchain is a good enterprise solution in its current form.
5. 纯粹将区块链视为数据库或存储机制
一些 IT 负责人将“分布式账本”与数据储存机制或分布式数据管理系统混为一谈。目前，区块链对于重要事件按照时间顺序追加记录。为了避免仅信任单一的中心机构，作为交换的是去中心化服务仅能提供有限的数据管理能力。CIO 必须意识到这个问题并权衡数据管理的重要程度，以此确定当前版本的区块链是否是完善的企业解决方案。
6. Assuming interoperability among platforms that don’t exist yet
Most blockchain technologies are still in the development stage and lack specific technology (or business) roadmaps. Fundamentally, wallets have no native fungibility, and ledgers themselves lack inherent integration capability. Critically, blockchain standards do not yet exist. This means that beyond assuming potential interoperability at the most basic level, CIOs should view any vendor discussions about interoperability with skepticism. Although there are multiple competing suppliers, the technology has not matured to a level where interoperability can be assured. Don’t expect blockchain platforms from 2016 to interoperate with blockchain platforms from a different vendor a year from now.
6. 误认为平台之间具有尚未达到的互操作性
- 大部分区块链技术仍在发展阶段，而且缺乏具体的技术（或商用）蓝图。
- 从根本上来说，钱包并非不可取代，而且账本本身缺乏固有的整合能力。
- 关键是，行业内尚未有区块链标准。这就意味着，除了假设最基础层面的互操作性尚不存在，CIO 还应谨慎思考技术供应商们关于互操作性的说法。
尽管市场上有很多竞争的供应商，这项技术还尚未成熟到可以确保互操作性。也不要指望 2016 年的区块链平台能够和一年后另一家技术供应商的区块链平台互相操作。
7. Assuming that today’s leading platforms will still be dominant (or even extant) tomorrow
With over 50 options in blockchain platform technologies, and another dozen on the horizon, CIOs should not assume that the technology selected for a project this year will offer longevity. As with mobile, social and e-commerce platforms of the past, it’s possible the most effective technology hasn’t yet even been created. CIOs should view blockchain options from 2016 and early 2017 as provisional or short-term options and plan projects accordingly.
7. 误认为今日领先的平台在未来仍会占据主导地位
目前市面上有超过 50 种区块链平台技术可选择，并且还有十多种即将推出，CIO 不该认为当前为项目筛选出的技术就能一劳永逸。就像过去的手机、社交网络和电子商务平台一样，最有效的技术很可能尚未问世。CIO 应该将 2016 到 2017 年初的区块链作为临时或者短期选项，并相应地规划项目。
8. Assuming that smart contract technology is a solved problem
Smart contracts, computer protocols that will facilitate and enforce contracts, are what will enable the programmable economy. However, at a technical level, smart contracts currently lack scalability, auditability, manageability and verifiability. Moreover there is no legal framework currently in existence — locally or globally — for their application. They will evolve in the next three to five years, but CIOs should be careful when developing smart contracts under current blockchain offerings and seek legal advice on their use.
8. 误认为智能合约技术的问题已经解决
智能合约，一种促使执行合约的计算机协议，是可编程经济的基础。然而，从技术层面上讲，智能合约目前缺乏可扩展性，难以审计、管理和验证。此外，在美国和国际上都没有法律框架为实际应用作支持。智能合约还需三到五年时间发展完善，CIO 在现有区块链功能上开发智能合约应该小心谨慎，并对用法征求法律意见。
9. Ignoring funding and governance issues for a peer-to-peer distributed network
The hypothesis is that blockchain platforms will be less costly than the current system of multiple redundant systems, processes and data interoperating with each other. However, the cost of blockchain technologies will be significant — made larger if existing legacy is not retired — and who will pay for what when multiple parties are participating remains mostly unanswered. Additionally, as the system grows in scale, so will the cost. Multiparty systems require new approaches to governance, security and economics that raise technical, as well as political,societal and organizational questions.
9. 忽略点对点分布式网络的资金和管理问题
理论上来说，相对于当前系统面对的多个繁杂系统彼此间的流程和数据交互，区块链平台应该耗费成本较低。然而，区块链技术的成本也很高，尤其是现有一套并未完全退出时成本更高，而且当多家机构共同参与时，由谁来支付何种费用的问题依旧没有答案。此外，随着系统规模增长，成本也会增加。对于多家系统的参与，需要全新的管理、安全以及经济方面的解决方式来处理所遇到的技术性、政治性、社会性和组织性问题。
10. Failure to incorporate a learning process
Enterprises must take a hands-on approach to blockchain projects. The current time frame is critical for establishing test-and-learn constructs.
The lessons learned from experimenting with the platforms, new business models, processes and products will be helpful for future implementations as part of a broad-scale digital transformation. Even if projects are contracted out, the IT department should work closely with the third-party supplier/partner to learn skills and concepts such as peer-to-peer computing, smart contracts, consensus mechanisms, identity management, governance and more that will be essential in future projects. CIOs should ensure knowledge is developed and transferred across the enterprise and recognize that knowledge might be the only value delivered by a blockchain project from 2016 and early 2017.
10. 未被纳入学习进程
企业必须以即时解决的方式来处理区块链项目。当前最重要的是尝试和学习。通过对技术平台、全新商业模式、全新流程和产品的不断试验来学习经验，对未来更大规模的数字化转型十分有益。即便项目外包，IT 部门也应同第三方供应商/合作伙伴紧密合作，以便学习关于点对点计算、智能合约、共识机制、身份管理和统筹治理等在未来项目中至关重要的技术和概念。CIO 应该确保在企业内部教授和传播关于区块链的知识，这也许是 2016 年到 2017 年初区块链项目带来的唯一价值。
三，补充学习
苏文力: 我们同事翻了一篇Gartner今年2月发的区块链项目常见错误的文章给各位参考。
徐伟 : 好文章
zkx: Gartner,就像个共识节点，把大家的观点收集起来，打个签名广播出去.
季: 但是Gartner的分析师局限于比特币的认识，可能对DLT的认知有限
zkx: 嗯，没有进一步的前瞻性
季: 听过现场的就知道，几个问题只能拿比特币来解释，很多诸如跨链，智能合约，DAC（区块链自洽公司）等，他们都没收集到足够的paper做分析。在我们的黑客马拉松上补充说了——“2017年10billion 生意”不准确了，未来几年可能20% infrastructure 替换。
沈: @苏文力 学习，DLT还在快速演进中
苏文力: 有人帮助总结搞清楚那些是坑，咱们可以参考别掉下去
Gartner区块链的重要信息
